EFP in gold: why COMEX and London prices drift apart
Josef Tufan is the founder of KTsys Solutions.
KTsys Solutions builds software for the physical precious metals business, since 2009.
Last updated · Photo altered with AI.
EFP (exchange for physical) lets the holder of a COMEX gold future switch the position into bullion stored in New York, and its price shows how far New York futures trade above the London spot price of gold.1 In normal times the gap between gold futures and spot is about 5 USD/oz;2 on 12.02.2025 it stood at 30–40 USD/oz (secondary source)2. On 08.08.2025, after US customs classed 1 kg bars as tariffable, it exceeded 100 USD/oz (secondary source)3.
What is EFP in gold?
EFP in gold is an exchange for physical: the holder of a COMEX gold futures position switches it into bullion already stored in New York, at a price that dealers quote as the EFP.1 Dealers' EFP prices rise when New York futures trade well above London spot, so the EFP measures the gap between the two markets.1
EFP connects London, where over-the-counter gold trading averaged 46.63 million oz4 a day in 2025, with the COMEX futures market in New York.
Why COMEX gold can trade above London spot
COMEX gold trades above London spot when gold is needed in New York faster than it can be moved there, for example when importers rush bullion to New York ahead of possible tariffs.1
On 31.01.2025, with a universal 10 % US import tariff under discussion, the gap between the most-active COMEX contract and London spot reached 40 USD/oz (secondary source)1, and dealers asked an EFP of up to 50 USD/oz (secondary source)1.1 In January 2025, 151 t5 of gold left London vaults for New York.
Gold and silver EFP dislocations, 2020 to 2026
The gap between New York and London widened several times between 2020 and 2026, each time for a reason that is documented: the Covid pandemic, tariff plans, a US customs ruling and the London silver squeeze.
| Date | Dislocation | Value | Per 1 kg bar |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07.01.2026 | Tariff expectation implied by EFP pricing, platinum, about6secondary source | 12.5% | |
| 07.01.2026 | Tariff expectation implied by EFP pricing, palladium, about6secondary source | 7% | |
| 07.01.2026 | Tariff expectation implied by EFP pricing, silver, about6secondary source | 5.5% | |
| 09.10.2025 | Silver lease rate in London (annualised cost of borrowing metal), all-time peak7secondary source | 34.9% | |
| 11.08.2025 | Futures–spot gap, about8secondary source | 55 USD/oz | |
| 08.08.2025 | Futures–spot gap after US customs classed 1 kg bars as tariffable, above3secondary source | 100 USD/oz | |
| 08.08.2025 | December COMEX gold future, intraday record that day3secondary source | 3,534.10 USD/oz | |
| 08.08.2025 | Gold spot price, same day3secondary source | 3,386.63 USD/oz | |
| 12.02.2025 | Futures–spot gap (normal: USD 5/oz)2secondary source | 30–40 USD/oz | |
| 31.01.2025 | EFP asks, up to1secondary source | 50 USD/oz | |
| 31.01.2025 | COMEX–London gap1secondary source | 40 USD/oz | |
| 01.2025 | Outflow from London vaults to New York5 | 151 t | |
| 2020 | EFP during the Covid London–New York dislocation, about9secondary source | 80 USD/oz |
The silver squeeze and silver lease rates in October 2025
In October 2025 a lack of silver in London drove the silver lease rate, the annualised cost of borrowing metal in London, to a record of 34.9% (secondary source)7 on 09.10.2025, and London silver prices rose above New York; some traders booked cargo space on transatlantic flights to move silver bars.7
The free float of silver in London was about 136 million oz (dealer source)11 at the end of September 2025.
Why US tariffs moved the gold price and the EFP
US tariff decisions moved the gap between New York futures and London spot because the risk of a tariff on new gold shipments pushed New York futures and EFPs up relative to London.1
- 31.07.2025: a US customs ruling, public in August, classed 1 kg and 100 oz gold bars as tariffable;12 on 08.08.2025 the gap between futures and spot exceeded 100 USD/oz (secondary source)3.
- 11.08.2025: after the US president stated on social media that gold would not be tariffed, the gap fell to about 55 USD/oz (secondary source)8.12
- 07.01.2026: EFP prices implied tariff expectations of about 12.5% (secondary source)6 for platinum, 7% (secondary source)6 for palladium and 5.5% (secondary source)6 for silver.
- 14.01.2026: Proclamation 11001 imposed no Section 232 tariff on processed critical minerals for now, ordered negotiations with an update within 180 days and kept minimum import prices as a possible later remedy.13
Frequently asked questions about EFP in gold
What is the EFP and why did it matter in 2025?
The EFP (exchange for physical) is the price at which a COMEX gold futures position is switched into bullion stored in New York. In 2025 it showed how far New York traded above London when tariff plans made gold scarce in New York: on 31.01.2025 dealers asked up to 50 USD/oz (secondary source)1.
What does the silver lease rate show?
The silver lease rate is the annualised cost of borrowing silver in London; a high lease rate shows that metal is scarce there. On 09.10.2025 it reached a record of 34.9% (secondary source)7.
Why did US tariffs move the gold price?
The risk of a tariff on new gold shipments pushed New York futures up relative to London spot, and a US customs ruling widened the gap to above 100 USD/oz (secondary source)3 on 08.08.2025.1
Sources for this article on EFP in gold
- BullionVault, tariff EFP. Secondary source, EN, published 31.01.2025, accessed 11.11.2026.
- ANZ Research, The Vault. Secondary source, EN, published 12.02.2025, accessed 11.11.2026.
- Reuters via Kitco, futures-spot gap after US customs ruling, 08.08.2025. Secondary source, published 08.08.2025, accessed 12.11.2026.
- LBMA, Market Report Q4/FY 2025. Primary source, EN, published 2026, accessed 11.11.2026.
- LBMA, London gold and silver vault data for January 2025. Primary source, published 07.02.2025, accessed 12.11.2026.
- Bitget news, EFP-implied tariff expectations 07.01.2026. Secondary source, published 09.01.2026, accessed 12.11.2026.
- MINING.COM / Bloomberg, silver lease rates. Secondary source, EN, published 27.10.2025, accessed 11.11.2026.
- BullionVault, futures-spot gap about USD 55 by 11.08.2025. Secondary source, published 11.08.2025, accessed 12.11.2026.
- OCIM, Lucrative dislocations in monetary metals markets. Secondary source, accessed 12.11.2026.
- metalcharts.org, gold in AED. Price portal, AR, accessed 11.11.2026.
- goldsilver.com, Silver shortage and the squeeze. Dealer, published 28.08.2026, accessed 12.11.2026.
- CNBC, tariff exemption. Secondary source, EN, published 12.08.2025, accessed 11.11.2026.
- Federal Register, Proclamation 11001 of 14.01.2026: Adjusting imports of processed critical minerals and their derivative products. Primary source, EN, published 20.01.2026, accessed 12.11.2026.
- Kitco, silver price. Price portal, EN, accessed 11.11.2026.
- ICE/IBA, LBMA Gold and Silver Price methodology. Primary source, EN, published January 2026, accessed 11.11.2026.